他们应该继续留下还是离开?我们的第二个信息图表探索任期限制和发展的关系

 In 分析, 资料图

我们建议中国公司走出国门,尤其是前往非洲国家时,他们首先应该提出的一个问题是:“这个国家稳定吗?”。睿纳新认识到,许多中国公司对“稳定性”的定义跟全球其他投资者对“稳定性”的定义不一样。事实上,中国利益相关者经常将最高领导层和政府的变化视为对稳定的破坏。在某些方面,这种推论是合情合理的。肯尼亚和南非过去一年左右的经济放缓,部分原因就是由于领导层的争论和政策的不确定性。中国企业非常喜欢可预测的政策和规则,无论它们是什么。中国更愿意在为政府提供基础设施项目时对政府的作用有明确法律规定的国家开展工作; 在对劳动力要求或纳税方面有明确规定的国家; 在媒体或其他参与者不会导致这些规则发生不可预测变化的国家/地区。要是规定不明确的话, 公司担心他们的投资回报率会很低。

 

与此同时,清晰、可预测和强有力的“法治”以及政府顶层制度的灵活性往往被视为发展的关键。2030年联合国可持续发展议程 第十六个目标包括这个概念。根据这个目标,从现在到2030年希望实现:“促进和平和包容性社会的可持续发展,为所有人提供诉诸司法的机会,并在各级建立有效、负责和包容的机构。”

 

随着中国政府宣布取消国家主席和副主席的两届任期限制,从而为该国未来更高层次的“稳定”铺平道路,会对中国的发展和外交有何影响?

 

在涉及哪些特定类型的治理安排对发展至关重要时,经济学家确实存在分歧。Acemoglu和Robinson等一些人提供的证据表明,强有力的规则和问责制与良好的经济表现正相关,尽管因果关系的方向尚不清楚。比如说,是经济发展带来稳固的制度亦或是恰好相反? 其他人,其他人,比如,Paul Collier认为,选举或其它类型的制度并没有减少政府滥用公共权力的可能性。。最近,Yuen Yuen Ang认为,即使在治理改革(和不平等)之前优先考虑经济发展,中国也有可能实现发展。最近,Yuen Yuen Ang认为,即便中国会在经济发展和政府改革(和消除不平等)之间优先选择前者,中国也依然有可能实现发展。

 

但这毕竟只是也许……因为任何国家都无法保证会按照某条轨迹来走。我们最新的信息图表显示,国家元首的任期限制对任何事物——无论是“稳定性”还是“明确的规则”——都不是一个可靠的指标。

 

举一些例子:埃塞俄比亚 – 由于这个国家所谓的的“可预测性”,它吸引了中国企业和组织的大量关注。埃塞俄比亚跟中国之前和世界上其它106个国家的情况一样,它对总统有两届任期限制,但对总理任期则没有任何限制。其总理最近因为国内政治动乱而被迫下台。而瑞士领导人只持有一年执政权,但该国始终处于人类发展指数的顶端。

 

另一方面,包括加拿大,尼加拉瓜和莱索托在内的66个国家,包括完全不一样的经济情况,都没有任何任期期限。许多加勒比国家没有任期限制,因为作为曾经大英帝国的一部分,它们的制度仍然主要基于英国的议会制。事实上,与大多数人的感觉相反,我们的信息图表显示,中东地区,而非非洲地区的国家在宪法中没有任何任期限制的比例最高。 因此,在过去16个月中,非洲大陆的领导层发生了16次变化。这个情况是好的还是坏的?这真的不好说。

 

也许这是联合国都不清楚的原因。SDG16本身对政治制度或具体政策几乎没有说明,也没有任何目标与任期限制有关。在某些情况下,联合国代表要求实行任期限制 – 例如最近在多哥。但在其他国家,联合国并没有任何规定 – 比如在中国。

 

有一种观点认为,在我们生活的复杂世界中,国家元首的任期限制是有问题的。在有任期限制的国家,总统无法通过关键的改革或政策来解决不平等和/或实现其全球角色。奥巴马的医改和美国对气候变化的应对就是显著的例子。也许,长期规划对许多国家来说是必要的——比如说,中国,卢旺达或马拉维还有其他贫穷国家 。

 

目前,关于“稳定”是否重要 – 特别是涉及总统任期限制 – 还没有答案。当我们为所有中国客户提供建议时,每一个国家有不同的情况,我们需要仔细地观察和分析每一个国家,并将其与他们正在寻找和需要的可预测性相匹配。稳定,不断增长的市场能够弥补很多政治上的不稳定性。

 

而对于我们的非中国客户,至少我们现在可以说我们期待“一带一路”倡议仍然是中国的首要任务 。 这可能是目前唯一的保证。

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EDMOND BOSILONG

Research Analyst

Edmond is a research analyst who is passionate about sustainable development, innovation, and the environment. Passionate about climate financing, he firmly believe there is a more reliable system to promote equality, growth, and welfare in societies without affecting the ecosystem. Through his skills, knowledge and experienced gained over 7 years, he wants to make an impact in the world of development. Edmond holds a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Korea Development Institute and a BA Degree (Honors) in Business from University of Derby.

HANNAH RYDER

Founder and CEO

Hannah Ryder is the Founder & CEO of Development Reimagined. A former diplomat and economist with 20 years of experience, named one of 100 most influential Africans in 2021, she is also Senior Associate for the Africa Program of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), sits on the Board of the Environmental Defence Fund, and is a member of UAE's International Advisory Council on the New Economy. Prior to her role at DR, Ms Ryder led the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s work with China to help it scale up and improve its cooperation with other developing countries, including in Africa. She has also played various advisory roles for the UN and OECD and co-authored the seminal Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change in 2006.

LEAH LYNCH

Deputy Director

Leah Lynch is Deputy Director of Development Reimagined (DR), and head of the China office. Leah has over 10 years of experience in development and has lived in China for over 8 years. Leah has also travelled extensively around Asia and Africa for research. Leah supports the strategic direction of the team across China, with a mission to deliver high quality research on sustainable development and poverty reduction. Leah is also Chair of the Sustainability Forum at the British Chamber of Commerce in China, providing direction on sustainability initiatives for British and Chinese business. Leah has also consulted on various evaluations on UK aid (ICAI) and is a specialist on development cooperation from the UK and China. Leah has also consulted on various UN projects, including providing support to the UN China team during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Prior to DR, Leah was at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) China, supporting the UN’s portfolio on communication strategies, China’s South- South Cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Before UNDP, Leah lived and worked in Kenya developing sustainable water policies for the Kenyan government.

YIKE FU

China-Africa Policy Analyst

Yike Fu is a Policy Analyst and has been responsible for leading numerous areas of work, including on debt analysis in Africa and beyond, and China-Africa trade and investment logistics and analysis. She is the co-author of “African Debt Guide”, in which she challenged the narrative that Africa is in the midst of a new debt crisis by analysing data back to the 1970s and adopting new metrics to present the real story behind the data. She also developed a benchmark to compare the financial distribution of development partners such as the UK, US, Japan, France and China in Africa. Prior to her role at DR she worked at the International Finance Corporation and African Union Representational Mission to the US. She holds a Masters in International Affairs from George Washington University.

JUDITH MWAI

Research Analyst

Judith is a Research and Policy Analyst, where she specialises in Africa-China relations, international development, and diplomacy. During her time at Development Reimagined, Judith has co-authored several articles published in The Diplomat on debt and China-Barbados relations and was quoted by China Daily in a piece on Women Rights in China. Previously, Judith worked as a research analyst for an Advocate and Commissioner and Oats office in Kenya.

OVIGWE EGUEGU

Policy Analyst

Ovigwe specialises in geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in a changing Global Order. He is adept at critically analysing the politics of contemporary development processes and providing insight into the geopolitical interests that influence them. His work includes research, publications, tailored briefings and advising on global and regional trends, and issues at the nexus of geopolitics and development. Ovigwe appears frequently in media around the world such as Al Jazeera, TRT World, SABC, CGTN, BBC Radio, and other platforms.

JING CAI

Policy Analyst

Jing leads China-African health and agriculture cooperation research at Development Reimagined, having managed our FOCAC Policy Analysis and Advocacy project. She is also the co-author of “China-Africa Health Cooperation under FOCAC Umbrella”, in which she analysed China’s commitments around health cooperation since the first FOCAC summit and deepdived into four African countries’ health overview, challenges and cooperation with China as cases studies. Before DR, Jing worked at GIZ Cambodia on M&E of a disability advocacy project. She also worked as a translator with Chinese medical team in Benin.

PATRICK ANAM

Trade Policy Analyst

Patrick is an International Trade Policy and Trade Law Expert with over 5 years of experience. His expertise includes trade law, trade policy analysis and regional integration. He is currently engaged with Development Reimagined as a Senior Trade Analyst and was the lead author of Development Reimagined's recent Report on Africa-China Relations titled "From China-Africa to Africa- China: A Blue Print for a Green and Inclusive Continent-Wide Strategy Towards China." and “Reimaging FOCAC Going Forward.” Patrick has previously consulted for the East African Community, UNECA and for the Kenya Ministry of Trade.

ROSIE FLOWERS

Senior Policy Analyst 

Rosemary is our Senior Policy Analyst. She is a skilled policy analyst and has previously worked as a UK civil servant. She is studying Human Rights at Birkbeck, University of London with a research focus on international law in the context of health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

JADE SCARFE

Project Manager and Africa-China Communication Assistant

Jade is a Project Manager for Development Reimagined’s flagship project Africa Unconstrained, which focuses on financing needs and debt vulnerabilities of African countries. Her research focuses on China-Africa development finance alongside debt vulnerabilities, infrastructure needs and South-South cooperation. She has worked with a breadth of stakeholders from China, Africa and the wider international community, including governments, private sector, NGOs and civil society. Her writing has appeared in a number of publications, including The Africa Report, The China-Africa Project, The Diplomat and more. Jade holds a Master’s in China and Globalisation studies from King’s College London.

ROSIE WIGMORE

Programme Manager

Rosie is the Project Manager of Africa Reimagined (AR) at Development Reimagined (DR) where she supports high-end African brands with entering the Chinese market by operating services such as trademark protection, Chinese market research, Chinese partnership building, and Africa to China logistical support and import/export services. Rosie has worked with DR for over two years now with proven success in helping high-end African brands navigate the Chinese market. She is extremely passionate about her work because more African brands selling in the Chinese marketplace means African countries can export MORE value-added goods, create MORE jobs and foster MORE innovation in African countries.

Rosie is also alumni of the School of International Studies at Peking University in Beijing where she is also an editor at the Peking Africa Think Tank. PATT is led by a diverse group of scholars who specialise in African Studies within the context of Sino-Africa relations.

LAUREN ASHMORE

Consultant

Lauren has lived in six countries from the Americas to Europe and Asia and speaks both French and Spanish proficiently. At Development Reimagined, Lauren’s research focuses on climate action both in the Asia-Pacific and in Africa, and how countries are using tools such as SDGs and Covid-19 action to build a more climate-resilient future. She holds a Masters in International Relations from Leiden University.

ETSEHIWOT KEBRET

Consultant

Etsehiwot holds a Masters’s degree in Development Studies from the London School of Economics. She has diverse experience in humanitarian and development issues by working in both multilateral organizations and international non-governmental organizations. Etsehiwot is currently a consultant focusing on the SDGs and development finance.

DIBEKULU MULU

Economist Consultant

Dibekulu is an economist by training. He holds an MSc in International Development Studies from Palacky University Olomouc, an MSc in Development Economics from the University of Clermont Auvergne, and an MSc in Economics, Finance, and International Integration from the University of Pavia. At Development Reimagined, he works as an Economist consultant. He has strong data analysis skills, with research interests centring around development finance, impact assessment, food security, and agricultural insurance.

OSARU OMOSIGHO

Research Analyst

Osaru is a health professional with an MSc in Health Systems Policy and an interest in women’s health and population management. At Development Reimagined, she applies her health sector experience to global health research and collating locally applicable development insights from China.

PIER FERDINANDO CINOTTO

Research Analyst

Ferdinando’s research at Development Reimagined is centred on South-South Cooperation dynamics, specifically on the analysis of Chinese investment and debt flows in Africa and their linkages to African industrialisation. He is currently a Yenching Scholar at Peking University, after having graduated from the University of Cambridge with an MPhil in Development Studies.

DAVID TINASHE NYAGWETA

Research Analyst

David is a Research and data analyst at Development Reimagined. His scholarly focus is mostly on interdisciplinary research in demographic economics and development with interests in migration, economic development and policy, education, health and subjective well-being. He is currently a PhD scholar at Nelson Mandela University from which he also holds B.com Economics and Statistics and M.com respectively.

IVORY KAIRO

Research Analyst Kenya

Ivory is a Kenyan lawyer with experience in policy research and analysis. She also supports the communications team at DR. Ivory speaks English, Swahili and French.

JOY ENE

Research And Data Analyst China 

Joy Ene is a Research and Data Analyst at DR. Joy is passionate about African/global development, poverty eradication and trade policies between underdeveloped and developing countries. She is also a fourth-year student of International Economics and Trade at the  Liaoning University, Shenyang, China. She serves as the President of the Student Union, Liaoning University, International Students chapter.

CHENSI LI

Research Analyst 

Chensi Li is a research analyst. She has previously worked for local NGOs in Nigeria and Cameroon and think-tanks in China.  Her research areas include Sino-African relations, African foreign affairs, public diplomacy, state-building and national governance.