中国在一带一路沿线的债务减免

 In 分析, 资料图

睿纳新国际咨询信息图表系列

随着第二届一带一路高峰论坛的召开,中国将成为各方关注的焦点,各方将进一步了解一带一路建设的深远意义,以及对发展中国家的潜在影响和机遇。124个签署了一带一路备忘录的国家尤其希望更多地了解中国的“走出去”全球战略,以及这对基础设施和其他项目的融资究竟意味着什么。

然而,主导着媒体领域说法的仍是“债务陷阱”,指责中国向发展中国家提供不可持续的贷款,尤其是这些国家目前正难以偿还贷款。一个被广泛引用的例子是斯里兰卡的汉班托塔港。该国政府无力偿还80亿美元贷款,因此同意与中国进行债转股。尽管此案将为斯里兰卡带来约70亿美元的外国直接投资(FDI),但它仍引发了人们的担忧,很多人担心更多国家落入“债务陷阱”,及经营国有资产的中国机构的控制。

与此同时,国际社会对一带一路投资引发债务积压问题的可能性也十分敏感。通过重债穷国倡议和多边债务减免倡议,国际社会已投入近1000亿美元,帮助超过35个国家减轻债务负担。

为了探究这种说法的准确性,全球发展中心(Centre for Global Development)在2018年发表的一篇论文对一带一路沿线国家的债务脆弱性进行了评估,文章结论是尽管这些担忧的确存在,但一带一路“不太可能在该倡议重点地区引发系统性债务问题”。在20年的时间里,对一带一路沿线国家8万亿美元的投资计划数额将会低于这些国家每年GDP的1.5%。如果不包括中国,约占GDP的2.5%,显然这是非常积极的发现。然而,如果国家无法偿还贷款,会发生什么——贷款能否被取消或重组,而不是变成股权?如果是这样的话,能从他国学到什么最佳实践经验和教训?

目前,关于中国外债减免的趋势以及这对一带一路沿线发展中国家意味着什么,几乎没有已发表的现成研究。多个资料来源之间的巨大差异使得构成一幅完整的图景变得复杂,而且没有任何官方记录可供两国政府或公众参考。随着中国成为发展中国家主要发展伙伴和南南合作提供者,为了让各国政府和发展伙伴能与中国建立有效、高效、务实的伙伴关系,对中国资金流动信息的需求越来越大。为了促进这种伙伴关系的发展,睿纳新国际咨询与牛津中国非洲咨询公司(OCAC)合作,发布了一系列信息图表,详细分析了中国取消和重组外债的情况。

利用从多个数据源——主要包括AidData, SIAS CARI、世界银行、国际货币基金组织和联合国贸发会议的数据,我们考虑了债务减免的相对数额、频率和地理因素,并且提供了易于理解的图表,以直观地展示2000年至2018年间中国债务减免的全球图景,并将其与中国自身参与的其他全球债务减免举措、全球援助的变化以及其他趋势联系起来。

以下是我们的四大发现:

  1. 2000年至2018年,中国在全球取消或重组的债务总额达98亿美元。每年的变化都很大。

中国总共取消或重组了96笔债务,其中包括2011年对古巴60亿美元的勾销。与此同时,其他债权人也采取了类似行动。总体而言,2007年债务减免的增幅最大,有25笔债务被取消,而2013年至2015年期间,这一数字为零。然而,自“一带一路”倡议于2013年启动、2015年达成《联合国可持续发展目标》以来,取消或重组的案例有所减少,这或许表明中国及其债务国的战略发生了转变。

  1. 与其他债权国一样,中国也参与了重债穷国倡议。但中国也向一带一路沿线的更多国家提供了债务减免,而且并不一定坚持国际货币基金组织(IMF)对大多数债务困境的定义。

法国和日本都提供了重大的债务取消,并且进一步研究这一影响可以为中国和债务国提供最佳实践案例研究的借鉴。

 

我们的研究结果表示,中国在提供债务减免时,并不仅仅关注最不发达国家或重债穷国。这对于中等收入国家来说是一个重要的消息,因为这些国家可能正在努力平衡债务和基本的基础设施需求。我们的分析也显示,在考虑债务减免时,中国似乎并不指望国际货币基金组织来决定谁最需要救助,而是考虑了其他因素。同样,这对陷入困境的国家是有用和重要的信息——它们可以参考其他问题,而不仅仅是国际货币基金组织的分析。

 

  1. 在2000年至2018年期间,一些国家多次收到债务取消的通知,而各国家的取消数量不同。这些国家在与中国谈判债务减免方面经验最为丰富,可以为其他国家提供重要的经验教训。

我们的结果显示,大多数国家只收到了一次取消。然而,收到三次或三次以上取消的国家几乎都在非洲,其中东非的比例最高。这显示了对非洲债务减免的关注。中非、西非和东非在2007年至2011年期间,也就是重债穷国倡议的高潮时期,债务减免最多。相比之下,南部非洲则是2012年后的焦点。

各个国家债务减免的数量也有所不同。总体而言,大多数国家收到的债务减免不到1亿美元,而巴基斯坦(5亿美元)和柬埔寨(4.9亿美元)都获得了巨额债务减免。两国都是一带一路的战略伙伴。赞比亚以2.46亿美元获得了非洲最大的债务减免,而尼日利亚只有300万美元。在某些方面来看,古巴是迄今为止最成功的债务减免案例,因此其他国家可以从古巴的案例中吸取重要的经验。

  1. 取消债务与外国直接投资数量之间存在反向关系,这意味着外国直接投资水平越高,国家获得债务取消的可能性越小。

 我们的分析显示,债务减免随着时间的推移而减少。这在中国的总贷款随着时间推移而增加的背景下似乎令人惊讶。我们的调查结果显示,自2013年一带一路倡议宣布以来,只发生过6次债务取消。

但为什么会这样呢?我们研究了一些可能的因素——从贸易到投资,而唯一显示出强大影响的因素是外国直接投资——即来自中国的投资越多,中国重组或取消债务的可能性就越小。事实上,随着时间的推移,中国的利益相关者可能更倾向于用债转股,而不是像斯里兰卡那样减免债务。然而,外国直接投资本身对于实现联合国可持续发展目标十分重要。它有助于创造就业机会。通过引进资本投资、技术和管理知识,它可以支持社会发展。这一分析对穷国来说是非常重要的,因为这些国家可以考虑将重点放在增加来自中国的外国直接投资份额的谈判上,以促进发展,而不是依赖债务减免。

这意味着什么?我们对中国和其他国家有什么建议?

研究显示,债务减免对债务国具有积极影响,特别是负债沉重的贫穷国家。例如,在刚果民主共和国,重债穷国倡议现在意味着刚果民主共和国实际上没有拖欠外债。政府有更好的财政稳定性,而现在已可以获得一些发展伙伴提供的直接预算资助。根据研究结果,与其他许多国家一样,中国愿意重组和取消债务。我们鼓励中国的利益攸关方继续对这些需求持开放态度,因为它们可以拯救生命。我们也鼓励其他捐助者探索中国的做法,看看他们可否也接受取消或重组债之外的国家的债务。尤其是在实现联合国可持续发展目标的这个时期,因为该目标指出即使是在最富有的国家也需要解决贫困问题。

中国愿意取消或重组债务,这一事实对债务国或未来可能面临麻烦的国家的政策制定者来说也是一个重要信息。对于这些国家来说,它们现在可以更好地意识到中国作为债权国所包含的种种可能性。我们建议他们与其他经历过债务重组、取消和债转股的国家交流,并向他们学习,找出适合他们的最佳途径,以及如何与中国谈判取得最佳结果。国际组织也应该介入,支持这些经验教训学习的努力。

最后,值得注意的是这项研究并不是在暗示什么,并不意味着各国应停止接受贷款,也不意味着中国应停止提供贷款。反之,亚洲开发银行的一项研究表明,仅在亚洲,在2016-2030年期间就需要26万亿美元的基础设施投资,以保持该地区3%到7%的经济增长、消除贫困、应对气候变化。然而,我们都需要努力确保债务流向生产性项目,支持经济以绿色方式增长,并为联合国可持续发展目标做出贡献,而不是要求取消这些项目。事实上,这就是我们作为咨询公司所要扮演的角色……我们为政府和私营部门建立联系并最有效地向前推进提供资源。

睿纳新国际咨询在此感谢牛津中非咨询公司的团队,尤其是Brian Oosthuizen所做的研究与分析。

点击此处下载英文版中文版的完整分析。

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EDMOND BOSILONG

Research Analyst

Edmond is a research analyst who is passionate about sustainable development, innovation, and the environment. Passionate about climate financing, he firmly believe there is a more reliable system to promote equality, growth, and welfare in societies without affecting the ecosystem. Through his skills, knowledge and experienced gained over 7 years, he wants to make an impact in the world of development. Edmond holds a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Korea Development Institute and a BA Degree (Honors) in Business from University of Derby.

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Hannah Ryder is the Founder & CEO of Development Reimagined. A former diplomat and economist with 20 years of experience, named one of 100 most influential Africans in 2021, she is also Senior Associate for the Africa Program of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), sits on the Board of the Environmental Defence Fund, and is a member of UAE's International Advisory Council on the New Economy. Prior to her role at DR, Ms Ryder led the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s work with China to help it scale up and improve its cooperation with other developing countries, including in Africa. She has also played various advisory roles for the UN and OECD and co-authored the seminal Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change in 2006.

LEAH LYNCH

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Leah Lynch is Deputy Director of Development Reimagined (DR), and head of the China office. Leah has over 10 years of experience in development and has lived in China for over 8 years. Leah has also travelled extensively around Asia and Africa for research. Leah supports the strategic direction of the team across China, with a mission to deliver high quality research on sustainable development and poverty reduction. Leah is also Chair of the Sustainability Forum at the British Chamber of Commerce in China, providing direction on sustainability initiatives for British and Chinese business. Leah has also consulted on various evaluations on UK aid (ICAI) and is a specialist on development cooperation from the UK and China. Leah has also consulted on various UN projects, including providing support to the UN China team during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Prior to DR, Leah was at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) China, supporting the UN’s portfolio on communication strategies, China’s South- South Cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Before UNDP, Leah lived and worked in Kenya developing sustainable water policies for the Kenyan government.

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Yike Fu is a Policy Analyst and has been responsible for leading numerous areas of work, including on debt analysis in Africa and beyond, and China-Africa trade and investment logistics and analysis. She is the co-author of “African Debt Guide”, in which she challenged the narrative that Africa is in the midst of a new debt crisis by analysing data back to the 1970s and adopting new metrics to present the real story behind the data. She also developed a benchmark to compare the financial distribution of development partners such as the UK, US, Japan, France and China in Africa. Prior to her role at DR she worked at the International Finance Corporation and African Union Representational Mission to the US. She holds a Masters in International Affairs from George Washington University.

JUDITH MWAI

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Judith is a Research and Policy Analyst, where she specialises in Africa-China relations, international development, and diplomacy. During her time at Development Reimagined, Judith has co-authored several articles published in The Diplomat on debt and China-Barbados relations and was quoted by China Daily in a piece on Women Rights in China. Previously, Judith worked as a research analyst for an Advocate and Commissioner and Oats office in Kenya.

OVIGWE EGUEGU

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Ovigwe specialises in geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in a changing Global Order. He is adept at critically analysing the politics of contemporary development processes and providing insight into the geopolitical interests that influence them. His work includes research, publications, tailored briefings and advising on global and regional trends, and issues at the nexus of geopolitics and development. Ovigwe appears frequently in media around the world such as Al Jazeera, TRT World, SABC, CGTN, BBC Radio, and other platforms.

JING CAI

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Jing leads China-African health and agriculture cooperation research at Development Reimagined, having managed our FOCAC Policy Analysis and Advocacy project. She is also the co-author of “China-Africa Health Cooperation under FOCAC Umbrella”, in which she analysed China’s commitments around health cooperation since the first FOCAC summit and deepdived into four African countries’ health overview, challenges and cooperation with China as cases studies. Before DR, Jing worked at GIZ Cambodia on M&E of a disability advocacy project. She also worked as a translator with Chinese medical team in Benin.

PATRICK ANAM

Trade Policy Analyst

Patrick is an International Trade Policy and Trade Law Expert with over 5 years of experience. His expertise includes trade law, trade policy analysis and regional integration. He is currently engaged with Development Reimagined as a Senior Trade Analyst and was the lead author of Development Reimagined's recent Report on Africa-China Relations titled "From China-Africa to Africa- China: A Blue Print for a Green and Inclusive Continent-Wide Strategy Towards China." and “Reimaging FOCAC Going Forward.” Patrick has previously consulted for the East African Community, UNECA and for the Kenya Ministry of Trade.

ROSIE FLOWERS

Senior Policy Analyst 

Rosemary is our Senior Policy Analyst. She is a skilled policy analyst and has previously worked as a UK civil servant. She is studying Human Rights at Birkbeck, University of London with a research focus on international law in the context of health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

JADE SCARFE

Project Manager and Africa-China Communication Assistant

Jade is a Project Manager for Development Reimagined’s flagship project Africa Unconstrained, which focuses on financing needs and debt vulnerabilities of African countries. Her research focuses on China-Africa development finance alongside debt vulnerabilities, infrastructure needs and South-South cooperation. She has worked with a breadth of stakeholders from China, Africa and the wider international community, including governments, private sector, NGOs and civil society. Her writing has appeared in a number of publications, including The Africa Report, The China-Africa Project, The Diplomat and more. Jade holds a Master’s in China and Globalisation studies from King’s College London.

ROSIE WIGMORE

Programme Manager

Rosie is the Project Manager of Africa Reimagined (AR) at Development Reimagined (DR) where she supports high-end African brands with entering the Chinese market by operating services such as trademark protection, Chinese market research, Chinese partnership building, and Africa to China logistical support and import/export services. Rosie has worked with DR for over two years now with proven success in helping high-end African brands navigate the Chinese market. She is extremely passionate about her work because more African brands selling in the Chinese marketplace means African countries can export MORE value-added goods, create MORE jobs and foster MORE innovation in African countries.

Rosie is also alumni of the School of International Studies at Peking University in Beijing where she is also an editor at the Peking Africa Think Tank. PATT is led by a diverse group of scholars who specialise in African Studies within the context of Sino-Africa relations.

LAUREN ASHMORE

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Lauren has lived in six countries from the Americas to Europe and Asia and speaks both French and Spanish proficiently. At Development Reimagined, Lauren’s research focuses on climate action both in the Asia-Pacific and in Africa, and how countries are using tools such as SDGs and Covid-19 action to build a more climate-resilient future. She holds a Masters in International Relations from Leiden University.

ETSEHIWOT KEBRET

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Research Analyst

Ferdinando’s research at Development Reimagined is centred on South-South Cooperation dynamics, specifically on the analysis of Chinese investment and debt flows in Africa and their linkages to African industrialisation. He is currently a Yenching Scholar at Peking University, after having graduated from the University of Cambridge with an MPhil in Development Studies.

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Research Analyst

David is a Research and data analyst at Development Reimagined. His scholarly focus is mostly on interdisciplinary research in demographic economics and development with interests in migration, economic development and policy, education, health and subjective well-being. He is currently a PhD scholar at Nelson Mandela University from which he also holds B.com Economics and Statistics and M.com respectively.

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Research Analyst Kenya

Ivory is a Kenyan lawyer with experience in policy research and analysis. She also supports the communications team at DR. Ivory speaks English, Swahili and French.

JOY ENE

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Joy Ene is a Research and Data Analyst at DR. Joy is passionate about African/global development, poverty eradication and trade policies between underdeveloped and developing countries. She is also a fourth-year student of International Economics and Trade at the  Liaoning University, Shenyang, China. She serves as the President of the Student Union, Liaoning University, International Students chapter.

CHENSI LI

Research Analyst 

Chensi Li is a research analyst. She has previously worked for local NGOs in Nigeria and Cameroon and think-tanks in China.  Her research areas include Sino-African relations, African foreign affairs, public diplomacy, state-building and national governance.

Yixin Yu

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Yixin is a Junior Research Analyst and her focus areas is on public-private partnership and entrepreneurship. She has over three years of working experience in both private and public sectors in Ethiopia. She was the China Liaison Officer for project ‘Partnership for Investment and Growth in Africa’ at International Trade Centre, where she accumulated rich experience in investment and trade promotion

HANNAH RYDER

Founder and CEO

Hannah Ryder is the Founder & CEO of Development Reimagined. A former diplomat and economist with 20 years of experience, named one of 100 most influential Africans in 2021, she is also Senior Associate for the Africa Program of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), sits on the Board of the Environmental Defence Fund, and is a member of UAE's International Advisory Council on the New Economy. Prior to her role at DR, Ms Ryder led the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s work with China to help it scale up and improve its cooperation with other developing countries, including in Africa. She has also played various advisory roles for the UN and OECD and co-authored the seminal Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change in 2006.