独家分析:G20对非洲贸易有何影响?

 In 分析, 资料图

睿纳新信息图表系列

贸易总是在不断变化,这就是现实。根据经济学理论,总有一些国家或地区在生产某些产品方面比其他国家或地区更具有成本和效率方面的优势。这些国家对其他国家出口更多的产品,而其他国家将从这些国家购买产品。不过这些优势会随着时间的推移而改变。

贸易对发展的重要性同样不言而喻。一些国家,如中国、韩国、泰国和阿联酋,已经通过贸易创造了数以百万计的就业机会,显著地减少了贫困。

在睿纳新,我们的客户经常询问我们中国的贸易情况,这在任何国家或企业的发展战略中都越来越重要。然而,中国的贸易模式存在于其他全球驱动因素和模式之中。这就是为什么在我们接下来一系列信息图表中,我们决定研究一个从未被分析过的数据库……非洲和一些世界上最大的国家——即G20二十国集团——之间的贸易模式。

这一独家数据分析对于即将于6月28日至29日在日本大阪举行的G20峰会以及6月27日至29日在中国长沙举行的首届中非贸易博览会也具有重要意义。后者代表着中国对非洲产品开放市场的新热情。我们之后会回到这一点。现在,先简要介绍一下G20的历史和背景……

何谓G20,他们为何重要?

受1998年亚洲金融危机的刺激,19个国家和一个地区(欧盟)的政府从1999年开始定期举行会议,讨论和协调其内部金融和经济政策,以期对其他国家发挥稳定、积极的影响。这20个国家加起来占世界人口的65%,经济总量的84%,以及碳排放总量的79%。随着时间的推移,G20已开始协调其它类型的政策对世界其他地区的影响。例如,自2009年英国担任主席国以来,G20已就气候融资达成初步协议。这对联合国谈判起到了帮助。2016年,中国国家主席还就G20如何直接支持非洲国家工业化展开讨论。

然而到目前为止,G20尚未就贸易模式如何影响非洲经济和发展潜力以及它们能提供什么解决方案进行集体审议。

所以,我们承担了这项任务,以下是我们研究成果的概览:

1. G20占据了非洲贸易的绝大部分,但贸易规模却很小

中国是大多数非洲国家最大的双边贸易伙伴,仅次于欧盟。中国(22%)和欧盟(33%)也是G20中最大的非洲产品进口国/区。

然而,G20平均只有3%的进口产品来自非洲。

2. 少数国家主导着非洲对G20国家的出口

如果说非洲整体而言与G20的贸易是有限的,那么对大多数非洲国家来说则更为有限。有29个非洲国家对G20的出口比例根本不及非洲总出口量的1%,其中包括卢旺达、塞拉利昂、塞内加尔和莱索托等拥有大规模工业计划的国家。就连自2012年以来以提升制造业和出口潜力而闻名的埃塞俄比亚,对G20的出口也不到非洲的2%。

相比之下,那些对G20出口份额较大的是一些拥有大量石油、矿产和其他自然资源的国家(如尼日利亚)。

这种“开采性模式”并不仅限于对中国。只有16个非洲国家与G20中半数或半数以上的国家拥有贸易顺差(即对G20国家的出口大于进口)。

3. 绝大多数非洲国家对G20国家存在总体贸易逆差 

平均每1美元的非洲对G20国家出口,1.4美元就会因G20国家对非洲出口而回到G20国家。这一平均水平掩盖了G20内部以及个别非洲国家的巨大差异。

结果呢?在所有G20成员国中,只有墨西哥对半数以上的非洲国家存在贸易逆差(即墨西哥自非洲的进口大于出口)。

4. G20自非洲的进口大多在上升,但依然保持在非常低的水平

对于大多数G20国家来说,它们自非洲国家的进口总体上一直在增长。其中一些下降现象可能与大宗商品价格下跌有关,是时机因素。中国处于这一总体上升趋势,这很重要,也意义深远——因为中国市场巨大,而且正在快速增长。种种迹象表明,中国正在使与非洲国家的贸易多样化。然而,整体而言,G20自非洲以外进口的商品总量仍然是自非洲大陆进口商品总量的36倍。

有趣的是,作为世界上最大的两个经济体,中国和美国自2000年以来走向了相反的方向。当时,它们从非洲以外地区进口的商品都是非洲的43倍。现在,中国自非洲以外地区进口的商品比例是自非洲的22倍,而美国则是70倍。G20内部的变化似乎不平衡,也不协调。

5. G20对规模更大、工业化程度更高、增长更快的非洲国家的出口比例,高于从这些国家进口或对较贫穷国家出口的比例。

这最后一项发现至关重要,因为它标志着结构性挑战的存在。它意味着,即使非洲国家内部有所改善,并发展经济理论提出所谓的“比较优势”——例如,在劳动力方面,非洲拥有庞大的青年人口,但目前的趋势表明,非洲国家可能只会从G20和其它较富裕国家进口越来越多的产品。我们还没有看到——而且几乎没有证据表示我们将看到——非洲国家从净进口国转变为净出口国。

即使像埃及这样一个拥有大量高产和优质农产品、强大制造业、高科技解决方案和服务的国家,自G20国家的进口也超过了出口。事实上,在所有55个非洲国家当中,埃及的绝对贸易逆差最大。

这一切真的是个问题吗?

与上述发现形成鲜明对比的是,经济学理论认为,未来的贸易应以非洲为中心,而不是G20国家或世界其它地区。为什么?在过去的40年里,由于大量廉价劳动力和小农等经济优势,中国通过采取了有力的举措将自己牢牢地置于世界贸易的中心,同时攀上价值链,从出口原始农业和其他自然资源到制成品和越来越多的高科技产品的出口。2016年,中国出口总额占世界的13.8%。为达到此数额,中国采取了积极的国内政策,如设立经济特区、对生产提供直接和间接补贴、保护市场(或“进口替代”)等。

但中国也得到了世界上其他国家的支持。中国于2001年加入世贸组织。最富裕的国家放开关税壁垒,将生产转移到中国,并不顾合资企业等有争议的政策,在中国投资。麦肯锡的一项指数显示,全球对中国的敞口从2000年的0.4升至2017年的1.2。

中国看到了自身增长和转型的潜力。其他国家也都看到了这一点。

世界上现在对于非洲的增长和转型潜力的舆论与日俱增。非洲拥有与中国相同的经济优势。廉价劳动力、数百万小农、日益健康的人口等等。在其他条件相同的情况下,中国的工厂应该开始向非洲国家转移。

此外,非洲的55个国家刚刚共同创建了世界上最大的自由贸易协定。AfCFTA (非洲大陆自由贸易协定)有望开启区域内贸易以及新的出口通道。

此外,非洲国家一直在开放其商业环境,建设工业区和基础设施以吸引投资。联合国贸发会议最近的一项研究发现,目前非洲有237多个工业区和工业园。事实上,G20国家的许多援助计划现在就是为了支持这些努力而制定的。这些计划被称为“贸易便利化”或“贸易援助”计划。

相比之下,自2001年多哈回合贸易谈判启动以来,与非洲国家贸易的全球政策环境几乎没有改变。在某些情况下,由于优惠贸易协定被用作政治工具而不是推动者,或者由于对农业和增值产品使用非关税壁垒而被忽视,这导致情况甚至在恶化。

G20能够做些什么?

我们的独家分析显示,G20国家毫无疑问拥有除贸易援助计划之外的最大杠杆,以支持非洲可持续性地进入全球供应链并向上游转移,最终在贸易中分得更大的份额。这就需要看G20集团首先如何解决自己的内部问题。

可探索的领域包括停止提供国内农业补贴以惠及较贫穷国家——正是这一点导致了多哈回合贸易谈判的破裂;利用G20买家、消费者偏好和国内激励措施,以绿色和可持续的方式将全球供应链从中国转向非洲大陆;认识到非洲现在将作为一个AfCFTA整体进行贸易,并将美国的《非洲增长与机会法》(AGOA)欧盟的《除武器外一切都行》(EBA)等现有优惠贸易协定扩展至整个非洲大陆。这些都是日本在本周的G20峰会上鼓励的承诺。日本或许可以利用AfCFTA或中美贸易战的挑战作为出发点。

国家、企业和其他国际组织能做些什么? 下面的规划是什么?

上述新颖的数据和分析只是第一步,显然这一问题还可以进行更深入的探索,也应该被G20和其他较富裕国家所采纳并效仿。同时,非洲和其他发展中国家,寻求改善或规划与更大参与者的新贸易关系的利益攸关方也应该效仿。事实上,我们认为,没有这些详细的分析和数据,就不可能在这些问题上取得进展。

这就是为什么当在中国、G20峰会、世界贸易组织、非洲联盟和其他地区组织的贸易讨论正在加剧之时,在睿纳新,我们将继续与所有合作伙伴——在政策和个人商业层面——提供数据、案例研究和实际支持,最终帮助非洲以及其他地区实现可持续性发展和减贫目标。

 

如果对进一步探究这些数据感兴趣,这些数据都来源于联合国贸易数据统计库(COMTRADE),请通过media@developmentreimagined.com 和我们联系。(友情提示:这是个非常庞大的数据库哦!)

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EDMOND BOSILONG

Research Analyst

Edmond is a research analyst who is passionate about sustainable development, innovation, and the environment. Passionate about climate financing, he firmly believe there is a more reliable system to promote equality, growth, and welfare in societies without affecting the ecosystem. Through his skills, knowledge and experienced gained over 7 years, he wants to make an impact in the world of development. Edmond holds a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Korea Development Institute and a BA Degree (Honors) in Business from University of Derby.

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Hannah Ryder is the Founder & CEO of Development Reimagined. A former diplomat and economist with 20 years of experience, named one of 100 most influential Africans in 2021, she is also Senior Associate for the Africa Program of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), sits on the Board of the Environmental Defence Fund, and is a member of UAE's International Advisory Council on the New Economy. Prior to her role at DR, Ms Ryder led the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s work with China to help it scale up and improve its cooperation with other developing countries, including in Africa. She has also played various advisory roles for the UN and OECD and co-authored the seminal Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change in 2006.

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Leah Lynch is Deputy Director of Development Reimagined (DR), and head of the China office. Leah has over 10 years of experience in development and has lived in China for over 8 years. Leah has also travelled extensively around Asia and Africa for research. Leah supports the strategic direction of the team across China, with a mission to deliver high quality research on sustainable development and poverty reduction. Leah is also Chair of the Sustainability Forum at the British Chamber of Commerce in China, providing direction on sustainability initiatives for British and Chinese business. Leah has also consulted on various evaluations on UK aid (ICAI) and is a specialist on development cooperation from the UK and China. Leah has also consulted on various UN projects, including providing support to the UN China team during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Prior to DR, Leah was at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) China, supporting the UN’s portfolio on communication strategies, China’s South- South Cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Before UNDP, Leah lived and worked in Kenya developing sustainable water policies for the Kenyan government.

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Judith is a Research and Policy Analyst, where she specialises in Africa-China relations, international development, and diplomacy. During her time at Development Reimagined, Judith has co-authored several articles published in The Diplomat on debt and China-Barbados relations and was quoted by China Daily in a piece on Women Rights in China. Previously, Judith worked as a research analyst for an Advocate and Commissioner and Oats office in Kenya.

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Ovigwe specialises in geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in a changing Global Order. He is adept at critically analysing the politics of contemporary development processes and providing insight into the geopolitical interests that influence them. His work includes research, publications, tailored briefings and advising on global and regional trends, and issues at the nexus of geopolitics and development. Ovigwe appears frequently in media around the world such as Al Jazeera, TRT World, SABC, CGTN, BBC Radio, and other platforms.

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Jade is a Project Manager for Development Reimagined’s flagship project Africa Unconstrained, which focuses on financing needs and debt vulnerabilities of African countries. Her research focuses on China-Africa development finance alongside debt vulnerabilities, infrastructure needs and South-South cooperation. She has worked with a breadth of stakeholders from China, Africa and the wider international community, including governments, private sector, NGOs and civil society. Her writing has appeared in a number of publications, including The Africa Report, The China-Africa Project, The Diplomat and more. Jade holds a Master’s in China and Globalisation studies from King’s College London.

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Rosie is the Project Manager of Africa Reimagined (AR) at Development Reimagined (DR) where she supports high-end African brands with entering the Chinese market by operating services such as trademark protection, Chinese market research, Chinese partnership building, and Africa to China logistical support and import/export services. Rosie has worked with DR for over two years now with proven success in helping high-end African brands navigate the Chinese market. She is extremely passionate about her work because more African brands selling in the Chinese marketplace means African countries can export MORE value-added goods, create MORE jobs and foster MORE innovation in African countries.

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Lauren has lived in six countries from the Americas to Europe and Asia and speaks both French and Spanish proficiently. At Development Reimagined, Lauren’s research focuses on climate action both in the Asia-Pacific and in Africa, and how countries are using tools such as SDGs and Covid-19 action to build a more climate-resilient future. She holds a Masters in International Relations from Leiden University.

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Hannah Ryder is the Founder & CEO of Development Reimagined. A former diplomat and economist with 20 years of experience, named one of 100 most influential Africans in 2021, she is also Senior Associate for the Africa Program of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), sits on the Board of the Environmental Defence Fund, and is a member of UAE's International Advisory Council on the New Economy. Prior to her role at DR, Ms Ryder led the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s work with China to help it scale up and improve its cooperation with other developing countries, including in Africa. She has also played various advisory roles for the UN and OECD and co-authored the seminal Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change in 2006.