非洲国家有意隐瞒新冠肺炎感染人数吗?

 In op-ed, 个人意见, 分析

突尼斯机戴着口罩和手套打扫卫生的女性。来源

目前非洲大的新冠肺炎人数很少,但史告们这不足奇。新冠肺炎正在全球范内蔓延,截至目前(35日)已95333例累,但其中只有27例来自非洲大。医学家有些困惑,怀疑是否非洲的病例被隐瞒了。其只要稍稍回一下史上其它染病和流行病在非洲的播情况,再加上一点经济分析,就能明白什么了。

被世界组织命名COVID-19新冠肺炎,最初出于中国的武——人口1100万,面积约8500平方千米。截至目前,此染性极的呼吸道疾病大部分确病例(84%)和死亡病例(91%)都来自中国。然而,去两周新冠肺炎已蔓延到全球并增速很快。同,我也看到了似于这样的新闻标题非洲国家面临严重的风险・盖茨警告:新冠肺炎非洲的重可能超中国。《柳叶刀》志上一广的研究列出了种可能性的据,并将非洲国家易受此病毒的感染程度行了排名

然如此,非洲国家并未受到新冠肺炎的重影响。埃及在214告了第一例在非洲确的新冠肺炎,成世界上第25病例的国家,而就在45天前,也就是1231日,中国向世界组织发出了警。中国以外,85个国家向世界组织报告了14768例确病例。其中,有7个非洲国家共告了27例新冠肺炎确病例(按照确诊顺序依次是埃及、阿及利、尼日利、摩洛哥、塞内加、突尼斯和南非)。比《柳叶刀》志上的研究所指出的非洲的脆弱性,个数据然不成比例吧?

,随着非洲国家的担,我也看到了这样的新闻标题非洲的低冠状病毒感染率让卫家感到困惑,其中有这样的摘于一个有13亿人口的大个数字直就是海一粟

是否非洲国家有意在隐瞒病情?非洲的生系是不是无法检测出感染病例?或者真的像社交媒体上所的那,非洲人的基因成能抵抗种病毒?

尽管中国的病例数量巨大,世界范内的病例数量也在不断增加,但第一例非洲的病例发现如此之晚并不奇怪,而且病例仍然很少。回一下史和经济可以帮助我理解其中的原因

去其它源于非洲外部的染病和流行病也了很久才抵达非洲,而且跟其它地区相比感染人数也少了很多。例如,2002-2003SARS,在中国出5个月之后到达了非洲,而南非是世界上第17告有感染案例的国家。其它非洲国家都没有一例感染告。2009年,墨西哥首例H1N1流感病毒感染2个月以后埃及才告了第一例感染病例,此H1N席卷了非洲以外的60个国家。最H1N1播到了41个非洲国家,超8000案例,160例死亡。体来,非洲大的死亡病例占据全球的1%

COVID-19经历着完全相同的模式,仅仅是在新的十年里又重复了一次。

什么?因非洲与世界的系相对较少,包括与中国,尤其是在人方面。《柳叶刀》的研究的确指出了哪些非洲国家在旅游上与中国的系更密,但作者并没有实际背景来考

非洲占全球旅游流量的5%,中国游客的4%甚至更少。有来自包括中国在内的世界各地的工人流入非洲,但些流微不足道。2017年,中国赴海外交付目的工人数中,只有16%去了非洲,其中23%去了一个国家——及利。因此,非洲尚未受到COVID19烈影响的原因,并不是因非洲大在某种程度上抵御能力更,也不是因航班和其他必要的检测和管理工具更差。

在,非洲国家在面COVID19去几十年面对传染病一,只是旁者,因非洲与中国及世界其它地区的远远落后于其它国家。有一个事可作为证据,迄今受到COVID19影响的7个非洲国家,旅游部都相对较发达,且国居民人数也更多。而7个国家中,4个国家在上述《柳叶刀》研究所列出的脆弱的11个国家名中,只有2个国家被世界组织似的非洲国家,享受COVID19筛选和其它防疫支持 (个数量如此之低有一部分原因是世界组织将一些非洲北部国家定于非洲大以外)

所以,应该怎么?其它48个未受影响的非洲国家是否可以放松警惕?与外界系最少的非洲国家是不是应该减少防疫准?答案当然是不能掉以心。史告,只要病毒抵达了非洲大就很可能越过边播。昨天(35日)阿及利亚报告了4例新的确,且出了第一例非入案例。在才是非洲各国应该认真准防疫的候。

世界组织,非洲盟和其它组织应扩大非洲大的支持范,重新划之前所13先防疫的国家,确保在如何管控病毒方面,向政府和民众达一个清晰,始如一的信息。222日,非洲盟召开了关于冠状病毒疾病暴的部长级讨论如何加对该疾病暴的防应对,并成立了非洲新型冠状病毒工作(AFCOR),以协调整个非洲大的防和反听起来前景很好,但如何在践中快速实现这一目是一个挑

们现在能阻止它一步蔓延?

史和经济也告,非洲艾滋病毒/艾滋病的反,以及源于非洲大的埃博拉病毒的反,使多非洲国家于更加大的地位,以避免COVID19疫情的蔓延。

然而,非洲各国政府、合国、其他国机构和公众需要有正确的信息和知来采取正确的行

到目前止,种情况没有出

本文于36表于The Africa Report. 且文中数据截至35日有效。文末有原文接。

 

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Edmond is a research analyst who is passionate about sustainable development, innovation, and the environment. Passionate about climate financing, he firmly believe there is a more reliable system to promote equality, growth, and welfare in societies without affecting the ecosystem. Through his skills, knowledge and experienced gained over 7 years, he wants to make an impact in the world of development. Edmond holds a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Korea Development Institute and a BA Degree (Honors) in Business from University of Derby.

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