Date published: July 1, 2025
In April 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). Amid global economic uncertainty, rising debt, and inflationary pressures, the forecasts are cautiously optimistic about Africa’s near-term growth. But is this projected growth enough to catalyse real transformation? And what risks might derail this momentum?
We analysed the latest WEO, alongside the World Banks most recent Global Economic Prospects, as well as the African Development Banks latest Africa Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (January 2025) and examined Africa’s growth trajectory, debt sustainability, and the wider global context.
How aligned are the economic outlooks? While broadly consistent in expecting growth in Africa to outpace global averages, the IMF, World Bank, and AfDB diverge on the scale and speed. The IMF tends to offer more cautious projections, particularly for resource-reliant economies, reflecting global oil and commodity volatility. The AfDB paints a more optimistic picture, especially in regional integration and resilience-building measures, while the World Bank emphasizes the challenges of fiscal consolidation. These nuanced differences underline the importance of drawing from multiple lenses when assessing Africa’s economic direction.
Key takeaways from our analysis:
1. Six African countries – Libya, Senegal, Guinea, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Niger – are projected to rank among the world’s top ten fastest-growing economies in 2025, underlying the regions continued drive for development driven by investments in agriculture, infrastructure, oil and gas prospects (particularly in Libya and Senegal), and digital transformation. For example, Libya leads with an expected GDP growth of 17.3%, while Senegal and Guinea are forecast at 8.4% and 7.1%, respectively.
2. In both 2025 and 2026, at least 41 African countries are projected to outpace global growth forecasts (3.9% – 4.1%), with countries such as South Sudan, Guinea and Sudan topping the list at 64.5%, 10.6%, and 8.8%, respectively.
3. African countries are expected to collectively repay around USD 88.7 billion in external debt service in 2025. To contextualize, that’s close to Africa’s total 2023 exports to China (approximately USD 96 billion), or more than double Africa’s annual textile exports (estimated at USD 35-40 billion).
4. With a large share of debt concentrated in ten countries, debt profile varies significantly as some rely more on domestic markets, while others carry substantial external exposure. This calls for more tailored assessments rather than one-size-fits-all debt thresholds.
What must African economies do now? To sustain and deepen resilience, African economies must shift their growth and export focus towards value-added production and manufacturing, backed by access to cheaper and more innovative financing instruments. This strategic reorientation will be central not only to accelerating growth but also to improving countries’ ability to repay debt sustainably, turning growth into long-term resilience.
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Acknowledgements: Special thanks go to Rugare Mukanganga, Juliet Onyino, Stella Milanzi, and Jade Scarfe for their work on the graphics, collecting/analysing the underlying data and sharing this accompanying article. The data was collated from the World Bank’s Group’s databank, IMF World Economic Outlook, and the African Development Bank’s African Economic Outlook. Our methodology is entirely in-house, based on analysis of economic growth, inflation and other trends.
