In June, the World Bank released its latest Global Economic Prospects report, projecting that the 2020s could become a lost decade for dozens of developing economies. Indeed, the conflict in the Gulf Region has compounded existing pressures from trade disputes, rising cost of capital and declining aid by traditional donors – pushing global growth forecasts downward. But does the same outlook for declining growth apply to African countries?

To answer the question, we analyzed the growth projections of the IMF, World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB), examining Africa’s growth trajectory within a global context marked by significant economic and policy uncertainty, alongside the continent’s broader debt sustainability landscape.

Despite a turbulent 2025 for the global economy, Africa’s growth has remained resilient, once again exceeding global growth. For 2026, the IMF and World Bank see global growth being 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. But for the continent, the IMF and World Bank outlooks are further ahead at 4.2% and 4.0%, respectively, aligning with the AfDB’s outlook for the year ahead. For 2027, forecasts also see Africa outpacing global growth rates, maintaining the five-year trend.

Here are four key takeaways from our analysis:

• While global growth is projected to slow over the next two years, Africa’s is accelerating. Currently, 70% of African countries are projected to exceed the global average in 2026, rising to 72% in 2027.
• East Africa leads regional growth at 6.4% in 2025, with Ethiopia among the world’s fastest growing economies. In 2026, Ethiopia is projected to sustain the momentum across both World Bank and IMF projections. Other African countries poised to lead global growth in 2026 include Guinea, Rwanda, Niger and Benin.
• Despite comparatively low external debt levels, both in absolute terms and relative to GDP, African countries are disproportionately penalized under DSA Surveillance. African economies account for only 28% of the 76 countries with an external debt-to-GDP ratio above 60%, yet 71% of the countries being flagged as high risk or in debt distress in the IMF’s latest DSA list from this 76-country grouping are African. Of the IMF’s top 10 fastest-growing African countries in 2025, four countries are also on the DSA high risk/in distress list.
• Inconsistent and biased credit ratings constrain Africa’s growth potential. No more than three African countries hold investment-grade status from any single rating agency, and 23 remain entirely unrated. Subinvestment-grade ratings push borrowing costs up by 2-3 percentage points, crowding out productive investment.

Growth without transformation is not effective. While the AfDB highlights the benefits of economic diversification and regional integration, these gains are suppressed by high debt servicing costs and a global credit system that continues to penalize African growth. In 2026, African leaders should build a strong coalition to push for Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) reform to reshape the narrative about the continent, advocate for IMF quota reform and facilitate borrowers’ coordination to ensure fair representation of African voices and resource access, and deepen alignment with Agenda 2063 to anchor sustainable growth.

 

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Acknowledgements: Special thanks go to Weilu Jiang, Hirwa Hans, Rugare Mukanganga and Chelsea Townsend for their work on the graphics, collecting/analysing the underlying data and sharing this accompanying article. The data was collated from the World Bank Group’s databank, IMF World Economic Outlook, and the African Development Bank’s African Macroeconomic Outlook. Our methodology is entirely in-house, based on analysis of economic growth, inflation and other trends.