Bridging Africa’s Infrastructure Finance: Data, Gaps, and Solutions
Welcome to our comprehensive database on Africa’s infrastructure finance gaps, designed to provide in-depth analyses that move beyond traditional narratives. While African governments and the continent’s regional banks already finance half of the continent’s infrastructure needs, significant gaps persist. For 21 African countries analysed, we estimate a total infrastructure finance gap of US$1.4 trillion – US$2 trillion between the years 2021-2030. Annually, the estimated finance gap ranges from US$141.9 billion – US$204.1 billion.
Our platform offers detailed forecasts of infrastructure investment requirements, considering various scenarios to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although our forecasts focus on high-end estimates, data on alternative, more conservative outcomes have also been assessed.
By presenting nuanced data and insights, we aim to foster informed discussions and promote innovative solutions to bridge these gaps, contributing to Africa’s sustainable development.
EXPLORE OUR DATA
Africa’s Infrastructure Finance Needs – Forecasting Africa’s Total Infrastructure Finance Needs (2021-2030)
Variations in the scale of infrastructure finance gaps across the continent reflect differences in progress made at country-level in keeping up with infrastructure development needs over time. But variations also reflect shortcomings countries have had, such as mobilizing resources needed for long-term investments such as infrastructure development, at the expense of more immediate needs such as servicing high debt service costs and funding climate adaptation. However, a challenge shared by African countries is in filling infrastructure data gaps as a step towards funding project preparation and feasibility studies, as well as mobilising the right quality of funding for these long-term projects.
DR’s Key Takeaways:
- Cumulative finance needs across the continent are massive. While African governments have played a leading role in developing infrastructure, the state alone cannot meet projected finance gaps.
- The extent of Africa’s infrastructure gaps also highlights growth opportunities that must be unlocked through cross-border and regional infrastructure projects as envisioned by the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA).
- Significant data gaps remain. Without adequate infrastructure data, most of the continent will continue to have unidentified infrastructure finance needs, hindering investment and economic growth opportunities.
Breakdown of the eight sectors we have covered in forecasting
Annual breakdowns illustrated below highlight the size of financial commitments countries may need to consistently make to keep up with national infrastructure finance needs over time. One of the biggest risks faced is like an ongoing challenge countries face with servicing high sovereign debt costs: failure to make timely payments on commitments made leads to a painful cycle of catching up and at an even higher cost. In the context of infrastructure, this means facing large chunks of costs to develop national infrastructure, partly because of failure to make enough annual investments over time to develop and maintain a country’s assets.
DR’s Key Takeaways:
- From a climate mitigation and adaptation point of view, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) also provide vital insights on Africa’s infrastructure finance needs. while approximately 66% of Africa’s climate finance needs will be for mitigation measures, about 50% of these falls under transport and energy sectors alone.
- Sectoral breakdowns of the continent’s infrastructure needs reinforce the importance of each sub-sector for long-term, sustainable economic growth.
- From urban and rural planning perspectives, having young and growing populations across African countries indicates an urgent need to stay ahead of infrastructure requirements to accommodate population growth outlooks.
Previous DR Work
- Forecasting The Infrastructure Financing Needs of Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Senegal up to 2030: https://developmentreimagined.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/en_forecasting-infrastructure-needs.pdf
- Infrastructure Spending to Meet the SDGs and Debt Sustainability – How to Square the Circle? https://developmentreimagined.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/infrastructure-spending-to-meet-the-sdgs-and-debt-sustainability-how-to-square-the-circle-1.pdf
- Report: Existing loans in 5 African countries are insufficient to fund infrastructure: https://developmentreimagined.com/impaired-access-to-concessional-financing-and-bias-within-debt-analysis-structures-are-major-roadblocks-for-african-countries-infrastructure-spending/
